Forecasting antiretroviral demand
ARV forecasting
An increased and reliable production of medicines for antiretroviral treatment (ART) is one of the key components required to achieve universal access to prevention, treatment and care of HIV/AIDS. Accurate forecasting of market trends for antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for ARV production is essential for brand-name pharmaceutical companies as well as for generic companies in order to design a long-term expansion programme for their production capacity.
To respond to this need, WHO and UNAIDS have created a working group to develop forecasts. At the present time, the working group includes Clinton Foundation HIV/AIDS Initiative (CHAI), Future Institute, Global Fund to fight AIDS, TB and Malaria (GFATM), John Snow Inc (JSI), Supply Chain Management System (SCMS), UNAIDS, UNICEF, UNITAID, USAID, and WHO.
In order to make available the data for ARV production forecast and to publicize the global rolling demand to the public, the working group has set up an electronic platform. A software will become available to enable interested parties to produce their own forecast for ARV demand.