Forecasting antiretroviral demand

Forecasting of market trends

Accurate forecasting of market trends for antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for ARV production is important to enable production planning by their producers.

To develop global level forecasts of the demand for ARVs, WHO and UNAIDS have created a working group, which also include the Clinton Foundation HIV/AIDS Initiative, Futures Institute, Global Fund to fight AIDS, TB and Malaria, John Snow Inc, the Medicines Patent Pool (MPP), the Partnership for Supply Chain Management of PEPFAR, UNICEF, and USAID. This group produces annual forecasts for the anticipated demand, and shares its draft forecasts with the manufacturers in an annual consultation to solicit their feedback.

Meetings on ARV global demand forecasting

Since 2005, the AMDS, in cooperation with UNAIDS has been hosting an annual technical consultation with partners on ARV forecasting and the needs in appropriate products.