Cost effectiveness and strategic planning (WHO-CHOICE)


PopMod simulates the evolution in time of an arbitrary population subject to births, deaths and two distinct disease conditions. The model population is segregated into male and female subpopulations, in turn segmented into age groups of one-year span. Each age-and-sex specific population group is subdivided into four distinct states representing disease status. The four states comprise two groups with specific disease conditions, a group with the combined condition and a group with neither of the conditions. The states are denominated for convenience X, C, XC and S, respectively. Disease state entirely determines health status and disease and mortality risk for its members. PopMod simulates the time evolution of the population by means of a system of ordinary differential equations. Basic PopMod output consists of the size of the population age-sex groups reported at yearly intervals. From this output further information is derived. Estimates of the severity of health states are required for full results, which include standard life-table measures as well as a variety of other summary measures of population health.

PopMod is supplied as a compiled program that relies on a combination of graphical user interfaces and standard spreadsheet tools for reading input data and selecting computational options. PopMod is a work in progress and users can expect that it will occasionally be updated with successive versions and enhanced user support. Currently, the program is supplied as a zipped file that contains the PopMod executable as well as associated help files and a variety of standard input files for use in various program configurations and model scenarios. Although an on-line user help function is included in the program interface, it is not fully comprehensive or completely up to date. Analysts wishing to use PopMod are expected to be familiar with spreadsheets and quantitative analysis as well as in particular with basic epidemiological and demographic concepts.

Limited support may be available directly from WHO staff by addressing queries to


PopMod is available upon request, please send an inquiry to

Please include the following line in your e-mail: "I have read and agreed to the terms of the PopMod license agreement".

Also, please indicate the version of Microsoft Excel/Office you are using. At present, PopMod is only compatible with operating systems running one of the following versions of Microsoft Excel/Office: 97, 2000, XP.
This is for pragmatic reasons and is not to imply that Excel or other Microsoft products are endorsed or recommended by the World Health Organization in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

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