Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Viral suppression after 12 months of antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

James H McMahon, Julian H Elliott, Silvia Bertagnolio, Rachel Kubiak & Michael R Jordan

Objective

To establish estimates of viral suppression in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in patients who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection.

Methods

Data on viral suppression after 12 months of ART in LMICs were collected from articles published in 2003 to 2011 and from abstracts of conferences held between 2009 and 2011. Pooled proportions for on-treatment and intention-to-treat populations were used as summary estimates. Random-effects models were used for heterogeneous groups of studies (I2 > 75%).

Findings

Overall, 49 studies covering 48 cohorts and 30 016 individuals met the inclusion criteria. With thresholds for suppression between 300 and 500 copies of viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) per ml of plasma, 84.3% (95% confidence interval, CI: 80.4–87.9) of the pooled on-treatment population and 70.5% (95% CI: 65.2–75.6) of the intention-to-treat population showed suppression. Use of different viral RNA thresholds changed the proportions showing suppression: to 84% and 76% of the on-treatment population with thresholds set above 300 and at or below 200 RNA copies per ml, respectively, and to 78%, 71% and 63% of the intention-to-treat population at thresholds set at 1000, 300 to 500, and 200 or fewer copies per ml, respectively.

Conclusion

The pooled estimates of viral suppression recorded after 12 months of ART in LMICs provide benchmarks that other ART programmes can use to set realistic goals and perform predictive modelling. Evidence from this review suggests that the current international target – i.e. viral suppression in > 70% of the intention-to-treat population, with a threshold of 1000 copies per ml – should be revised upwards.

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